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New poll shows Congresswoman Barbara Lee in statistical dead heat in race for U.S. Senate

After voters hear more about all candidates, Barbara Lee, Adam Schiff, and Katie Porter are statistically tied

OAKLAND, CA — Today, Congresswoman and U.S. Senate candidate Barbara Lee released the results of a recent survey of California likely voters that show Lee, Adam Schiff, and Katie Porter in a statistical dead heat in the U.S. Senate race to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

The survey, conducted by the widely respected research teams of Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz Associates (FM3), EVITARUS and HIT Strategies, finds that the race begins with Lee at 11%, Porter 24%, and Schiff 21%. However, Lee’s support nearly doubles when voters hear balanced, positive background information, evening the numbers with Lee at 20%, Porter 24%, and Schiff 20%. 

The poll reaffirms that the March primary race remains wide-open and competitive, with no candidate attracting the support of more than one-quarter of voters, and confirming Lee’s massive potential to expand support.

“We have always said that the more voters hear about Barbara Lee, her personal story, and her record of fighting for and delivering justice for all, the more voters stand behind her for U.S.Senate. And these poll numbers confirm that,” said Joe Armenta, Lee’s campaign manager. “The race remains up for grabs and hugely competitive, and we feel confident that our message will continue to resonate and our support will continue to grow.”

From May 13-21, 2023, FM3EVITARUS and HIT Strategies completed 1,380 interviews with California voters likely to cast ballots in the March 2024 primary election, with a margin of sampling error for the study of +/- 4.0%. A poll memo is available here.

Lee’s campaign for U.S. Senate continues to build a long and growing list of supporters, including Attorney General Rob Bonta, Treasurer Fiona Ma, Controller Malia Cohen, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, Congressmembers Ro Khanna (CA), Pramila Jayapal (WA), Ayanna Pressley  (MA), Jim Clyburn (SC), Jamaal Bowman (NY), Steven Horsford (NV), Bennie Thompson (MI), Bonnie Watson Coleman (NJ), Lucy McBath (GA), Terri Sewell (AL), Troy Carter (LA), and Gregory Meeks (NY), former Chair of the Congressional Black Caucus Cedric Richmond, State Senators Susan Talamantes Eggman, Anna Caballero and Nancy Skinner, Assemblymembers Mia Bonta and Corey Jackson, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, San Francisco Mayor London Breed, Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, San Bernardino Mayor Helen Tran, Redlands Mayor Eddie Tejeda, Rialto Mayor Deborah Robertson, former Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf, Palm Desert Mayor Pro Tem Karina Quintanilla, Dolores Huerta, California Democratic Party Asian Pacific Islander Caucus Chair Deepa Sharma, California Democratic Party Progressive Caucus Chair Amar Shergill, and California Democratic Party LGBTQ Caucus Co-Chair Tiffany Woods.

Lee also has the backing of the Alameda County Building and Construction Trades Council, California Legislative Black Caucus, the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, Feminist Majority PAC, Black Women Organized for Political Action PAC, and Higher Heights for America.

There are currently no Black women serving in the U.S. Senate. In the nearly 240 years since the Senate first met, only two African American women have been in the Senate, serving a total of 10 years.